Don’t Believe the Narrative: A Deeper Look at Polling Reveals Trump’s Strength Among Likely Voters
Despite relentless media claims that President Donald Trump is tanking in the polls, especially following his bold “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, a deeper dive into recent survey data tells a very different story. The real polling breakdown—by respondent type and pollster credibility—suggests Trump is in a far stronger position than mainstream headlines imply.
According to RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) average as of May 12, Trump’s job approval rating sits at 45.8% approve to 50.1% disapprove — a net negative of 4.3 points. But this broad-brush average masks major internal differences based on who is being polled, and how.
The Spread: From +6 to -12 — and Why It Matters
Among the 14 polls included in the RCP average:
-
Rasmussen Reports (sampling likely voters) gave Trump a +6 net approval.
-
NewsNation/DDHQ (sampling adults) pegged him at -12.
This 18-point spread highlights how methodology and audience can dramatically skew results — a critical point when trying to assess a president whose base is energized and turnout-driven.
Who’s Being Polled?
-
Likely Voters (Rasmussen, Trafalgar):
Average Trump approval +4% -
Registered Voters (9 polls):
Average approval -4.8% -
All Adults (3 polls):
Average approval -8.7%
Trump performs strongest among those most likely to vote — and worst among general adults, many of whom are politically disengaged or historically non-participatory in elections. This matters because elections are decided by voters, not opinions.
Pollster Quality Tells the Same Story
Pollster accuracy also follows the same pattern. According to ActiVote’s “Most Valuable Pollster” rankings (based on 2024 accuracy):
-
Likely voter pollsters ranked an average 4.5 — highly reliable.
-
Registered voter pollsters averaged 27.4
-
Adult-only pollsters averaged 33.3
Translation: the more credible the pollster, and the more politically engaged the respondents, the better Trump performs.
The Media’s Misleading Narrative
Corporate media outlets — many of whom rely heavily on polls of adults or low-engagement registered voters — have used this surface-level data to push a “Trump is slipping” narrative, especially in light of his aggressive trade policies, populist messaging, and posture against globalist institutions.
But Trump’s base remains highly motivated, and polls that measure enthusiasm—not just opinion—consistently show him outperforming expectations.
History Repeats: Polls Underestimated Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024
Trump has never polled like a conventional politician. In 2016 and 2020, many pollsters failed to properly weight working-class, rural, and non-college voters. In 2024, he again defied expectations with a decisive electoral victory, even as pundits claimed he was “unelectable.”
Bottom Line: The Numbers Don’t Lie—But the Headlines Might
When viewed through the right lens—likely voters, reputable pollsters, and turnout realities—Trump’s support is not only solid, it’s election-winning. The disconnect between polling averages and political reality explains why Trump continues to defy the media and campaign with confidence.