Poland’s embattled Prime Minister Donald Tusk survived a parliamentary vote of confidence on Tuesday, but his liberal, pro-EU government faces an uncertain and likely diminished future after the stunning presidential victory of conservative populist Karol Nawrocki—an ally of the MAGA movement.
Tusk, a globalist figure and staunch ally of Brussels bureaucrats, swept into office vowing to dismantle the nationalist legacy of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). Yet with his agenda stalled and momentum fading, Tusk’s political dominance has been thrown into chaos. His government is now locked in a power struggle with President Nawrocki, whose surprise election on June 1 has dramatically altered Poland’s political landscape.
The confidence vote, initiated by Tusk himself in an attempt to project strength and unity, passed with 243 votes in the 460-seat parliament. But while he lives to govern another day, the real story is his lack of veto-proof authority. Poland’s president holds the power to strike down legislation, and Tusk’s coalition lacks the supermajority needed to override such vetoes—effectively placing a leash on his most radical reforms.
Tusk attempted to spin the vote as a reset. “This vote of confidence should be a new beginning,” he declared. “We have a mandate to take full responsibility for what’s going on in Poland.” But critics see a weakened leader clinging to power amid rising dissent from within his own coalition, which is fracturing under pressure.
The reality is stark: Nawrocki’s presidency means key parts of Tusk’s progressive agenda—including legalizing same-sex partnerships and softening abortion laws—are likely dead on arrival. Former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro didn’t mince words: “The lost presidential election is the end of Donald Tusk. His fate is already sealed.”
Analysts note that Tusk now faces two and a half years of “lame duck” governance until the next scheduled parliamentary election in 2027. The latest polling reflects that only one-third of Poles believe his administration will last that long.
Tusk’s coalition had pinned its hopes on Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski winning the presidency. His loss to Nawrocki—a conservative nationalist who has drawn inspiration from Donald Trump’s America First platform—shattered those hopes and shifted Poland’s power balance firmly to the right.
With Nawrocki now holding the presidential pen, the battle for Poland’s soul is far from over. Tusk may have survived this round, but the tide has turned—and the next chapter belongs to the rising conservative movement.